A direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran would carry dangerous consequences for many geographical regions around the world, and could gradually—or even suddenly—ignite the actual onset of a third world war. First and foremost, the U.S. and Israel, and subsequently the Middle East, the Caucasus, Turkey, Europe, and even Russia and China would not be immune from the deadly impacts of this conflict. Given the strategic significance of these regions, the resulting damage would extend across the entire international arena—from the Far East and Australia to Africa and Latin America

This article briefly highlights some of the most significant of these consequences

United States

The most dangerous strategic and long-term consequences for the U.S. in the event of war with Iran could include

Formation of a Unified Front Against U.S. Interests

A direct attack on Iran may prompt a coordinated response from the Resistance Axis (Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi and Palestinian resistance groups). These groups could carry out asymmetric and attritional attacks on U.S. bases in the region (especially in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE), leading to high human and economic costs for Washington

Strait of Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Crisis

Iran has repeatedly declared it would close the Strait of Hormuz if existentially threatened. Closing this vital passage—through which about 20% of the world’s oil is transported—could lead to an unprecedented spike in oil prices and a global economic crisis, severely affecting the U.S. and its allies

Collapse of Alliances and U.S. Global Credibility

A war with Iran may occur without the consent of European allies or NATO. This could cause traditional allies to hesitate in supporting the U.S. in other crises, shaking America’s leadership in the global order

Domestic Backlash and Social Divisions

A prolonged and costly war—especially after failed experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan—could spark widespread public protests, congressional pressure, and even a political crisis within the U.S

Acceleration of China and Russia’s Rise

Being bogged down in a regional war may provide a golden opportunity for China and Russia to expand their influence in critical regions unimpeded by Washington, thereby reshaping the global order to America’s detriment

Iran’s Rapid Missile and Nuclear Advancements

In the event of war, Iran may abandon international restrictions and move quickly toward developing nuclear weapons—something the U.S. has long feared.

U.S. Financial Market Crisis

Sudden Shock to Stock Markets

War triggers psychological instability in financial markets. Key indices like the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 could rapidly drop as investors rush toward safe assets like gold, treasury bonds, or strong currencies such as the Swiss franc

Oil Price Surge and Imported Inflation

Strait closure or reduced oil supply would cause fuel, transport, and production costs to soar in the U.S., unleashing an inflationary wave. The Federal Reserve may respond with tighter monetary policy (interest rate hikes), deepening the economic slowdown

Capital Flight and Dollar Depreciation

Geopolitical instability could erode global investor confidence in U.S. markets, causing capital outflows, reduced foreign investment, and dollar depreciation. U.S. bond markets may come under pressure, raising long-term yields

Banking and Credit System Strain

With asset devaluation and higher interest rates, banks may face increased default risk and liquidity shortages. Public confidence could drop, triggering widespread withdrawals reminiscent of the 2008 crisis

Economic Recession

High costs, labor market instability, inflation, and weakened demand could drive the U.S. into deep recession, with rising unemployment, negative growth, and worsening inequality

Multinational Corporations Affected

U.S. companies operating in the Middle East or with regional supply chains (e.g., energy, tech, transportation firms) may face severe disruptions and profit losses, putting additional pressure on the stock market

Internal Unrest and Conflict in the U.S

Internal unrest and conflicts in the United States, in the event of a war with Iran, could emerge in widespread and multilayered forms. These crises would not only stem from the direct consequences of the war but also from deep-rooted social, political, economic, and racial divisions within the country—divisions that could be rapidly triggered by a catalyst such as war

Growing Political and Cultural Polarization

War could intensify conflict between political factions—hawkish conservatives vs. anti-war liberals. Youth and leftist groups may stage widespread protests, especially if the war drags on and casualties rise

Civil Protests and Street Violence

Economic hardship from the war (rising prices, unemployment) could spark class-based protests. Groups like Black Lives Matter, labor unions, migrants, and students may rally against war spending and inequality, potentially leading to violent clashes with police

Rise of Extremist Groups

Far-right and militia groups (e.g., Proud Boys, Oath Keepers) might mobilize under patriotic slogans, while anarchist or far-left groups may rise in opposition—potentially leading to localized civil conflict

Information Warfare and Conspiracy Theories

Social media and media platforms would become battlegrounds for psychological warfare. Conspiracies about the real motives for war, Israeli influence, or a "deep state" may flourish, eroding public trust in institutions

Mental Health Crisis and Public Health Strain

War-related anxiety and economic pressure would increase depression, domestic violence, suicide, and mental disorders. Meanwhile, healthcare resources would be diverted to war efforts, weakening the social safety net

Erosion of Government Legitimacy

Persistent unrest and harsh security responses could deepen distrust in police, military, and federal government. Demands for government resignations or even secession referenda (e.g., in California or Texas) might emerge

Potential U.S. Fragmentation

While not currently imminent, academic and strategic discourse around U.S. fragmentation has grown. War, deep economic crises, and political dysfunction could shift this from theory to plausible scenario

Ideological and Cultural Schisms

Sharp divides between conservative Southern and Central states and progressive coastal ones on cultural and moral issues (abortion, LGBTQ rights, immigration, gun control, etc.).

Political Polarization

Collapse of federal trust, rise of extremism, and breakdown of national dialogue. Trumpism, the Capitol riot, and growing militia activity are signs of rising separatist sentiment

Economic Injustice and Centralized Power

Concentration of wealth and power in federal institutions and select states fosters resentment and identity crises elsewhere

Possible Scenarios

  • Texit: Texas, with a history of independence, has active movements advocating secession
  • Calexit: California, economically larger than France, sees itself as a distinct cultural and ecological power
  • Regional Confederations: Potential for new regional unions
    • Western Republic: CA, OR, WA
    • Southern Republic: Led by Texas
    • Northeast Union: NY, MA
    • Mountain States: Independent or aligned with external powers

Accelerating Factors from a War with Iran

  • Widespread economic collapse and uncontrolled inflation
  • Anti-government protests and weakened federal legitimacy
  • Rise of state-level militias and military tension
  • Fragmentation within the armed forces

Israel

The gravest consequence for Israel is not just military, but strategic, psychological, and civilizational

Collapse of Iron Dome and Multi-Front War Vulnerability

Hezbollah’s 150,000+ precision missiles could paralyze northern Israel. Simultaneously, Palestinian groups in Gaza and the West Bank, backed by Iran, could attack. Iraqi, Syrian, or Yemeni forces might also engage, overwhelming Israel’s missile defenses

Psychological Threat to Israeli Legitimacy

A major attack on Tel Aviv could shake belief in Israel’s security. Mass reverse migration may occur, and non-Zionist Jewish support in the West could wane

Global Isolation and Loss of International Support

If war is perceived to be provoked by Israeli lobbies in the U.S., global opinion could turn sharply against Israel. European allies and U.S. public support may decline

Prolonged War and Domestic Crisis

A drawn-out war with the Resistance Axis could paralyze Israel’s economy and trigger major social unrest, especially between ethnic groups and Arab Israelis.

Direct Iranian Attacks or Strategic Weapons Use

Iran could target key Israeli infrastructure (e.g., Dimona nuclear facility or Ben Gurion airport) with high-precision missiles or drones if existentially threatened

Collapse of Deterrence Doctrine and Regional Inequality

Any failure to decisively respond would undermine Israel’s deterrence, causing Arab normalization partners (e.g., UAE, Bahrain) to reconsider ties

[Due to length, translation will continue in the next message with sections on the Middle East, Caucasus, Turkey, Europe, Russia, China, and the possibility of World War III.]

Middle East

The most dangerous consequence for the Middle East in the event of a U.S.-Iran war would be the collapse of regional structures, eruption of multilayered conflicts, and a descent into a new era of civilizational instability—threatening not only state borders but also social, identity-based, and civilizational fabrics

Regional Spillover (Proxy + Direct Wars)

The Resistance Axis (Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Yemen) would be activated in response to U.S.-Israeli aggression. Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait—may become battlegrounds, especially with U.S. military bases targeted. Likely outcomes include direct Israel-Hezbollah clashes, urban warfare in Gaza, uprisings in Iraq, and attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf

Collapse of Energy Order and Regional Economic Crisis

Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz or oil infrastructure could halt Gulf oil exports. Oil revenues would drop sharply, causing recession, inflation, and rising unemployment. Energy-importing countries (e.g., Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon) may face severe fuel shortages

Return of Terrorism and Extremist Groups

Power vacuums may enable the resurgence of ISIS, al-Qaeda, and affiliates. Prison breaks in Syria and Iraq could release fighters, triggering renewed instability. Weak states like Lebanon or Libya may be unable to manage this crisis

Psychological Disintegration and Societal Fragmentation

Multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian societies (e.g., Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, even Iran) may descend into internal strife, civil unrest, or fragmentation. Growing distrust and reliance on militias over governments could lead to state failure

Mass Migration and Refugee Crisis

Millions may flee conflict zones toward Europe, Turkey, and beyond—far larger than the Syrian refugee crisis. Host countries (e.g., Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon) would face intensified internal crises

Collapse of Political Alliances and Redefinition of Blocs

The Abraham Accords, GCC, and even the OIC may fracture. Severe regional polarization between the Iran-led and U.S.-Israel-led camps could eliminate the space for diplomacy

Destruction of Historical Civilizations and Infrastructure

Cultural, historical, and human infrastructure in cities like Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Sana’a, Isfahan, or even Riyadh could suffer immense damage. Loss of water, health, and sanitation systems could push the region toward ecological and civilizational collapse

Caucasus

The most serious risks for the Caucasus involve deep geopolitical instability, resurgence of ethnic-religious conflicts, and transformation into a theater for great power rivalry

Spillover of Instability to Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia

Azerbaijan’s proximity to Iran and close ties with Israel and Turkey may make it a target of Iranian retaliation, especially if U.S. or Israeli forces operate from its soil. Armenia (Russia-aligned) and Georgia (Western-leaning) may also be indirectly dragged into tensions

Ethnic and Sectarian Tensions

Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish, Turkic, and Persian minorities in the Caucasus could become mobilized, incited, or separatist. Intelligence-driven provocations from rival powers (Russia, Turkey, Iran) may lead to domestic unrest

Renewed Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict (Nagorno-Karabakh)

In the fog of regional instability, renewed war over disputed territories is likely. Turkey may intervene on behalf of Azerbaijan, prompting indirect Russian involvement

Disruption of Transit Corridors and Trade Routes

The Caucasus serves as a key link in the China-Europe transit corridor and Caspian energy routes. War could disrupt North–South and East–West corridors, economically isolating the region

Rising Influence of Competing Powers

Russia may reinforce its military presence in Armenia and the North Caucasus; Turkey may expand its cultural and military footprint in Azerbaijan and Georgia; the U.S. and NATO may try to capitalize on the vacuum to deepen influence in Georgia or use its airspace

Threats to Domestic Political Unity

Heavy casualties or economic collapse in Azerbaijan could widen the rift between government and people. Georgia may experience an identity crisis between pro-Western aspirations and Russian pressure. Armenia could become strategically paralyzed between conflicting powers

Turkey

The greatest threat to Turkey in the event of a U.S.-Iran war is falling into a multidimensional geopolitical trap—jeopardizing its internal security, regional stability, national economy, and global standing

Instability on Eastern and Southern Borders

Border regions with Iran (Van, Ağrı, Hakkâri) may face insecurity, arms smuggling, and militia infiltration. Northern Iraq and Syria—where both Iran and the U.S. are present—could become active battle zones, dragging Turkey into an unwanted crisis

Rise of Armed Kurdish Groups

Groups like the PKK, YPG, and PJAK may exploit wartime chaos to escalate activities. Backed (even indirectly) by either side, they could trigger internal unrest or terrorist attacks in Turkey’s Kurdish regions

Economic Meltdown from Energy Crisis

Turkey relies heavily on energy imports from Iran, Iraq, and Russia. War could drive energy prices sky-high, weakening the lira, driving out capital, increasing foreign debt, and pushing the economy into deep recession. The vital tourism industry would also collapse

Strategic Dilemma Between NATO and Iran

As a NATO member with strained U.S.-Europe relations, Turkey would face immense pressure to condemn Iran. Yet Iran remains a key strategic and economic partner. Aligning against Iran could provoke military or intelligence retaliation

Weakening of Turkey’s Regional Ambitions (Neo-Ottomanism)

Turkey’s efforts to expand influence among Turkic, Sunni, and Islamist populations in the Middle East, Caucasus, and North Africa may backfire amid chaos. Rivalry with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and even Israel may intensify, possibly leading to proxy conflicts or strategic overreach

Rising Domestic Divisions and Political Instability

Economic stress, refugee influx, contradictory foreign policy, and political polarization could destabilize Turkey’s regime. Early elections, protest movements, and legitimacy crises may emerge


Europe

The gravest threat for Europe in the event of a U.S.-Iran war would be a combination of security, energy, economic, migratory, and geopolitical crises. Unlike the U.S., which is geographically distant, Europe lies within the direct radius of impact and is highly vulnerable due to energy dependency and diverse migrant populations

Energy Crisis and Stagflation

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed or threatened, oil and gas prices would surge. As Europe is already recovering from the energy crisis following the Ukraine war, a new shock could plunge it into severe stagflation. Energy-intensive industries in Germany and France (e.g., automotive, steel, chemicals) would suffer greatly

Financial Market Shock and Euro Devaluation

Global instability could lead to a decline in the euro relative to the dollar and gold. Investors might shift their capital from Europe to safer markets. European banks—particularly those in Italy, Spain, and Greece—could face liquidity crises

Security and Terrorist Threats

Iran-linked groups or allies may carry out retaliatory operations within Europe. European NATO forces in Iraq or Syria might suffer casualties, heightening domestic opposition and discontent

New Migration Waves and Strain on Social Systems

A wider regional war could destabilize Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and even Pakistan again, creating a fresh refugee crisis. Millions might head toward Europe, overwhelming its infrastructure and sparking new waves of social instability

Transatlantic Alliance Fractures (Europe–U.S.)

If Europe refuses to join the war or views it as unnecessary, it may clash with the U.S. and NATO cohesion could suffer. Alternatively, if Europe is pressured into participation, domestic backlash (e.g., in France or Germany) could trigger political crises

Increased Chinese and Russian Influence in the Middle East and Africa

With the West weakened in the region, China and Russia could enhance their presence in energy, defense, and investment markets. This would disrupt Europe’s strategic balance in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean

Russia

While the direct consequences for Russia may seem less immediate, a U.S.-Iran war could deeply affect Russia's geopolitical balance, southern borders, energy-dependent economy, and regional influence

Instability Along Southern Borders

Iran lies on Russia's southern flank. War could destabilize the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Caspian basin. Ethnic, religious, and terrorist threats may rise, directly affecting Russian national security. Extremist elements could infiltrate via Afghanistan and Central Asia

Disruption of Regional Power Balance in West Asia

Russia currently cooperates with Iran against Western influence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Weakening or destroying Iran would diminish Russia’s regional allies and allow U.S., Israeli, or NATO influence to grow in the region, damaging Russia’s strategic position

Energy Market Volatility (Both Opportunity and Threat)

Short-term oil and gas price hikes might benefit Russia. However, prolonged market instability, damaged export routes (e.g., pipelines via Iran), or maritime insecurity could hinder Russian exports to China and India. New transnational sanctions may also emerge

Heightened Western Pressure and Sanctions

A U.S.-Iran war could galvanize Western solidarity against all anti-Western powers, including Russia. Diplomatic and economic sanctions may intensify. Joint projects in energy or defense between Russia and Europe could be suspended

Growing Dependency on China

Amid crises, Russia may grow increasingly reliant on China to counterbalance losses in influence and markets. This dependence could downgrade Russia from an independent player to a subordinate actor in the new global order

Strategic Power Vacuum in Post-Iran Landscape

If Iran weakens or fragments, regional players like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the U.S. may scramble for dominance in former Iranian spheres of influence. Russia may be drawn into these rivalries, risking costly interventions and strategic overextension.

China

At first glance, a U.S.-Iran war may seem like a chance for China to expand its influence while the U.S. is distracted. However, the war could confront China with a cascade of strategic, economic, energy, security, and civilizational crises that undermine its global vision

Severe Disruption in Energy Supply

China is the second-largest importer of Iranian oil and heavily dependent on Gulf energy. War in the Strait of Hormuz or damage to oil infrastructure could spike import costs and disrupt energy security, leading to inflation, reduced industrial output, and economic slowdown

Instability in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Iran is a vital node in China’s Belt and Road project. War would force China to suspend or reassess infrastructure, rail, and energy investments across the Middle East, Central Asia, and Pakistan, weakening its Eurasian geopolitical standing

Risk of Proxy Conflict and Strategic Pressure

A polarized world (West vs. anti-Western axis) could push China into indirect conflict. The West may demand China take sides, challenging Beijing's policy of strategic neutrality

Financial Market Turbulence and Export Disruption

Wartime volatility may lead investors to pull out of developing markets like China. Global demand, shipping costs, insurance premiums, and supply chains would be affected, hurting Chinese exports. Rising prices of raw materials and industrial metals would squeeze manufacturers

Strategic Encirclement in Asia

The U.S. could use the war as a pretext to boost its military presence in Asia—citing security in maritime chokepoints, counterterrorism, or allied protection. China might face renewed geopolitical encirclement in East Asia, India, and the Middle East.

Ideological and Civilizational Backlash

Simultaneous pressure on China and Iran could spur a global Western ideological alliance against authoritarian states. China's image—as an unofficial Iranian ally—might suffer, impacting its soft power and global legitimacy.

The Start of World War III

This section evaluates how a U.S.-Iran war could trigger the Third World War. Using historical patterns, civilizational analysis, and assessments of multipolar global dynamics, the argument is made that such a conflict could spiral into an unprecedented global confrontation

Historical Patterns and Modern Parallels

World Wars I and II started from seemingly limited conflicts. Hidden alliances, imperial rivalries, and lack of global oversight led to escalation. Today’s world faces similar polarization and regional pacts (e.g., NATO, BRICS, Resistance Axis)

 War as a Chain-Reaction Trigger

Numerous countries across the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, East Asia, and Europe could become involved. The conflict might expand into economic, cyber, psychological, terrorist, and even nuclear dimensions

 Uncontrollable Multipolar Escalation

The current world lacks a single hegemon. The U.S., China, Russia, India, and the EU all have conflicting interests. A U.S.-Iran war could quickly escape any single power’s control

Civilizational and Cultural Clash

The Iran–U.S.–Israel confrontation is not only political but also civilizational (Islamic vs. Western) and ideological. The likelihood of forming culturally and civilizationally aligned blocs increases (Huntington’s thesis)

 Role of Advanced Weapons and Proxy Wars

Precision missiles, suicide drones, cyberattacks, and intelligence operations could broaden the scope of conflict. World War III may not be traditional—it may consist of prolonged proxy wars across several regions

 Collapse of International Institutions and Global Reordering

The failure of the UN and other global bodies to prevent or manage crises may erode global cohesion. A post-war world order might move away from Western liberal democracy toward a multipolar civilizational system

Conclusion

While World War III is not an inevitable or fully predictable outcome, a war between the U.S. and Iran—given today’s tense global structure—could serve as the spark. Such a conflict may mark the beginning of a new phase of international collapse, civilizational polarization, and unpredictable global confrontations. Analyzing this scenario is crucial for strategic foresight and preventing a global catastrophe.